What do you think about the latest poll?

What do you think about the latest poll?

With as many as 35% not saying or not decided, it is hard for me to make any firm conclusion about which party is most likely to win.

One thing I am certain of is this: there is no point in voting for the PEP.

Carlos.

http://www.nationnews.com/story/327555760952090.php

POLL: CLOSE RACE

Published on: 12/23/07.

by CAROL MARTINDALE

THE JANUARY 15 GENERAL ELECTION, just three weeks away, will be a "fairly closely fought election".

However, the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) still has the advantage,
especially when it comes to the issue of leadership, which the majority
of voters in a recent poll say will be critical to how they vote on
polling day.

In the just released Cave Hill Associates Polling Organisation (Chapo)/Boxhill poll, Arthur, whose party is seeking a fourth term, has maintained almost a 2-1 lead when it comes to leadership.

"A significant finding of the survey is that leadership is a key
issue for Barbadians in the upcoming election," stated the summary of
the report obtained by the SUNDAY SUN. It added that more than
70 per cent of the respondents considered leadership to be a key
indicator as to how they would vote in the next election.

The poll, conducted between December 7 and 17, however, shows that
the Opposition Democratic Labour Party (DLP) is narrowing the gap
between itself and the BLP on a number of other indices.

In fact, the results indicate a "relatively close" contest between
the BLP and DLP, with the ruling party at 35 per cent and the DLP
trailing with 30 per cent.

Almost one in five of the respondents, though, said they had not yet
decided which party would get their vote, while just over eight per
cent did not respond to the question.

Still, on leadership it showed that the ruling BLP party had the edge.

Arthur led at 46 per cent to David Thompson's 24.5 per cent.
However, 27.6 per cent declined to give their views on leadership. In
the poll, leadership was so critical among voters that the majority
said it would influence how they would vote in the next election. This
is compared to 49.3 per cent who said it would affect how they voted to
a great extent and 23.8 per cent who said it would moderately influence
their decision. Those who indicated that this issue would not influence
their
vote was 5.9 per cent, while 12.7 per cent declined to answer.

Only 1.5 per cent of the respondents felt the leader of the People's
Empowerment Party David Comissiong would do the best job leading the
country.

A summary of the poll stated: "The BLP may seek some comfort from
the fact that both the party and its leader Owen Arthur have higher
ratings than the DLP and its leader David Thompson.
"Indeed, of possible concern for the DLP is the fact that the party
has more negative than positive ratings. On the other hand, Owen
Arthur's approval rating is higher than that of his party, confirming
that the 'Arthur Factor' remains an important factor in elections in
Barbados."

This poll originated in the Faculty of Social Sciences, Cave Hill
Campus, and involved Professor Ian Boxill as polling director, Dr
George Belle as an analyst, and Dion Greenidge as data manager and had
a sample of 1 220 enumerated voters.

Don't forget to mention that Dr. George Belle is a card carring member of the BLP.

From a statistical point of view, in a country of 280,000 people, I think a poll of "1,220 enumerated voters" is too small. It should be at least 5,000 people in order to make me feel comfortable with it. We also need truly independent pollsters. Even Peter Wickham supports the party of his choice. Pollsters should be brought in from outside Barbados, preferably from elsewhere inside CARICOM, and not anywhere too close. Like from Belize or Suriname.